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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I have developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
Week 11 Recap
- WR7 Jauan Jennings: 25.1 PPR FP — did better than his average
- WR8 Jameson Williams: 22.6 — did better than his average
- WR29 D.J. Moore: 13.7 — did better than his average
- WR47 Keenan Allen: 8.1
- WR51 Kayshon Boutte: 7.3
- WR60 Jaylen Waddle: 5.7
- WR63 Rashod Bateman: 5.0
- WR85 Calvin Austin III: 0.9
The Week 11 results were a mixed bag of boom-or-bust performances. Jameson Williams and Jauan Jennings were standout successes from the model, but few others delivered exceptional outings.
As I noted in last week’s “Coach, I Was Open” breakdown, Caleb Williams has continued to struggle with targeting the optimal receivers, a trend that persisted in Week 11.
Boutte saw targets for the fourth consecutive game but couldn’t put together a complete performance.
Jaylen Waddle remains stuck in a rut and may never eclipse 8.0 fantasy points again.
Calvin Austin III had one deep target but failed to haul it in. Still, identifying two top-10 receivers out of eight is a solid result in my book.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 12
As a quick reminder of how regression-to-the-mean models work, I predict a player’s FPpG based on their three-week PWOPR (explained more here).
PWOPR is much more stable than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future performance. To identify potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a good PWOPR and a residual of -3 or lower appear on this list. Players will continue to appear until one of the following occurs:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
As is standard with regression-to-the-mean models, certain players tend to appear repeatedly for various reasons, such as poor quarterback play or overall offensive struggles.
In this model specifically, the presence of an alpha wide receiver (or tight end) can push other players onto the list. Take DeVonta Smith, for instance. With A.J. Brown as the focal point of the Eagles’ passing attack, every target forced to Brown—whether it’s a good decision or not—is one less opportunity for Smith, even if he’s open and ready to make a play.
Now, let’s review some names on the Week 12 list:
Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore: The Bears' tandem is on the list again. Allen has been averaging eight targets per week over the last three weeks, while Moore has been averaging 7.3. Both are solid numbers, but the Bears’ passing offense has been lackluster, to say the least. The Bears play the Vikings this week, who run the No. 1 MOFO (middle of the field open) rate in the NFL over the last month but have the ninth-worst team PFF coverage grade over the same time frame. This is an above-average matchup for most wide receivers, but:
- Williams has a base PFF Passing grade of 61.4 (ranks 32nd out of 40 in the NFL (min. 100 dropbacks)
- Williams’ grade drops to 54.4 against MOFO, which ranks 29th out of 29 quarterbacks (min. 100 dropbacks vs MOFO)
DeVonta Smith: The Eagles receiver faces a fairly average defensive matchup against the Rams this week. The Rams rank in the middle of the pack across most defensive metrics and employ a roughly equal split of MOFO and MOFC coverages. However, FantasyPros ranks them as a top-six matchup for wide receivers in fantasy points allowed, which bodes well for Smith and teammate A.J. Brown.
Romeo Doubs: Doubs will go up against the 49ers, a team that frequently allows single-coverage situations. Doubs leads the Packers in target share against single coverage, which suggests the potential for a breakout performance.
Michael Pittman Jr.: The Colts take on the Lions, who are coming off a dominant win over the Jaguars. This could play to Pittman’s advantage in fantasy, as Indianapolis might spend much of the game trailing—DraftKings lists the Colts as 7.5-point underdogs. While the Lions allow plenty of single-coverage opportunities, Pittman has struggled in those situations this season, with a 25th-percentile PFF grade against such looks. Still, volume matters most in fantasy, and a game script featuring the Colts playing from behind could provide Pittman ample opportunities.
Kayshon Boutte: The Patriots wideout has been consistently earning targets, with six in each of the last four games. Boutte excels against man coverage, posting grades in the 70th percentile or higher in such situations.
Noah Brown
Brown faces a depleted Cowboys defense in a game where the Commanders are heavily favored—Washington is a 10.5-point favorite, per DraftKings. The Cowboys have run the eighth-most MOFO coverage in the NFL over the past month while earning the fifth-worst team PFF coverage grade. Brown has the third-most targets on Washington against MOFO but only the sixth-best PFF grade against such looks.
Jalen Tolbert: Tolbert represents the Cowboys’ side of their matchup against the Commanders. Dallas is likely to adopt a pass-heavy game plan. As seen in Week 11, the Cowboys won’t hesitate to throw the ball 50 times if necessary.
Calvin Austin III: Austin has been solid at getting open, but the Steelers’ run-first offense and George Pickens’ heavy target share limit his opportunities. However, the Browns could offer Austin a chance to shine. Cleveland has the third-worst PFF team coverage grade over the last month and has run the fifth-most MOFC coverage during that span.
Tre Tucker: Tucker, a frequent appearance on this list, posted a 90% snap share last week and has consistently shown an ability to get open. Despite this, a breakout seems unlikely, with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers commanding most of the Raiders' offense.
Route-based heroes from last week who were on bye:
Malik Nabers: The rookie gets a new quarterback, for better or worse, and will play in a game where the Giants might have to pass the ball quite often. New York is a 5.5-point underdog against Tampa Bay, per DraftKings.
Michael Wilson: Wilson draws a good single-coverage situation, but as we have discussed before, a lack of general pass volume will be a problem for fantasy success.
As always, not every player on this list will deliver, but several will likely exceed their average PPR from the past three weeks. A few could even have explosive games.
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