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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I have developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
Week 13 Recap
- WR21 Marvin Harrison Jr.: 17.0 — did better than his average
- WR22 Justin Jefferson:16.9 — did better than his average
- WR26 Malik Nabers:15.3 — did better than his average
- WR27 Tre Tucker: 13.9 — did better than his average
- WR38 Michael Wilson: 10.5 — did better than his average
- WR40 Zay Flowers: 10.1
- WR46 Michael Pittman Jr.: 9.2
- WR57 Kayshon Boutte: 7.1
- WR64 Jalen Tolbert: 6.1
- WR65 Deebo Samuel: 6.0
- WR69 Noah Brown: 5.7
- WR75 Rome Odunze: 4.5
- WR82 Tank Dell: 3.3
- WR84 Quentin Johnston: 3.2
- WR92 Josh Palmer: 2.1
- NA Rashod Bateman: 0
Overall, the model had a slight down week. There were no “explosion” plays, but the model still identified four top-30 wide receivers. Tre Tucker was the one real spotlight in its identification.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 14
As a quick reminder of how regression-to-the-mean models work, I predict a player’s FPpG based on their three-week PWOPR (explained more here).
PWOPR is much more stable than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future performance. To identify potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a good PWOPR and a residual of -3 or lower appear on this list. Players will continue to appear until one of the following occurs:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
Teams on bye in Week 14: Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Washington Commanders, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans
Christian Watson: Watson has an ideal matchup against the Lions, who have struggled mightily in single coverage over the last month. Detroit has allowed the most single-coverage opportunities for opposing wide receivers during that span, and the Lions rank bottom-five in quick pressure rate, which could give Jordan Love the time needed to target Watson downfield.
Detroit also allows the highest average target depth into coverage over the past month, setting the stage for Watson to see several deep opportunities.
Malik Nabers: While the Saints have struggled recently, posting the 10th-worst team PFF coverage grade over the past month and the third-worst quick pressure rate in the league, the Giants’ unsettled quarterback situation significantly dampens expectations for Nabers. Without stable play under center, it’s tough to anticipate a breakout performance.
Garrett Wilson: Wilson and the Jets face a difficult matchup against the Dolphins in Week 14. Miami rarely allows single-coverage situations and has operated with a top-10 MOFO (middle-of-the-field open) rate in the NFL over the past month. While their sixth-worst PFF coverage grade in that span hints at some weaknesses, they compensate by permitting the lowest average depth of target (aDoT) in the league. This defensive setup could limit Wilson’s opportunities for explosive plays, making it a tough spot for a big performance.
D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf faces a challenging matchup against the Cardinals in Week 14. Arizona’s defense has leaned heavily on a MOFO scheme, running it at the third-highest rate in the NFL over the past month. They’ve also allowed the fourth-fewest single-coverage opportunities while earning the fourth-best team PFF coverage grade in that span. This disciplined defensive approach could limit the situations where Metcalf thrives, making it a tough test for the star wideout.
Rome Odunze: Bears rookie Rome Odunze faces a tough matchup against the 49ers in Week 14. Over the last month, San Francisco’s defense has allowed the fifth-fewest single-coverage opportunities while running the second-highest MOFC rate in the NFL. While their quick pressure rate ranks second-worst, they’ve permitted an 8.0-yard average depth of target (aDoT) during that span—well below Odunze’s 14.2-yard aDoT. This misalignment in styles could limit Odunze’s opportunities for big plays.
Darnell Mooney: Mooney faces the Vikings in Week 14, a team running the fourth-highest MOFO rate in the NFL. While their coverage defense is middling, ranking 15th, they excel at generating quick pressure, ranking fifth in the league.
Quentin Johnston/Josh Palmer: Both Chargers receivers remain on the radar after a lackluster Week 13 performance from the LA offense. In a potential Sunday Night Football showdown against the Chiefs, the matchup presents intriguing dynamics. Kansas City employs the sixth-highest MOFO rate yet allows the fifth-most single-coverage opportunities. This bodes particularly well for Joshua Palmer, who experiences a 10% target share boost in single-coverage situations.
While the Chiefs generally limit the average target depth (aDoT) to 7.7 yards, the Chargers thrive on deep passes, boasting a 10.4-yard aDoT — the second-highest in the league. Adding to the intrigue, Kansas City struggles in coverage on passes targeting players seven or more yards downfield, ranking as the sixth-worst PFF coverage defense in those situations. This could lead to a bounce-back performance for both receivers.
Final Thoughts
As always, not every player on this list will deliver, but several are well-positioned to exceed their recent average PPR, with a few potentially delivering explosive performances. Thank you for reading!
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