Fantasy Football: Using personnel-adjusted YPRR to evaluate first and second-year wide receivers

• Wheels up for Puka Nacua and Tank Dell: A relatively obvious statement after their strong rookie seasons, their personal-adjusted YPRR numbers provide more stability to their Year 2 potential.

• Hopes for poor Year 1 performers continue to decline: While not the final nail in the coffin for Quentin Johnston and Jonathan Mingo, there’s not a lot of reason to be optimistic.

• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!

Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes

After diving into the more personnel-specific data for college wide receivers prior to the NFL Draft (here), and finding some good indicators for success rate, it’s now time to put the young NFL wide receivers under a similar microscope.

As highlighted several years ago by former PFFer Zach Drapkin, now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles organization, receiving production often hinges on a player’s usage, and one of the ways we can quantify this is by looking at the different personnel groupings within which receivers run their routes. As highlighted by Drapkin in 2021, the more wide receivers on the field, the fewer opportunities there are to command targets and produce yardage.

This more specific look at yards per route run (YPRR) — a very popular and stable metric used to evaluate wide receivers — can hopefully help cut out a little bit more of the noise involved in actual YPRR and provide more detailed context to evaluate the position. There is still going to be noise involved, with injuries and quarterback play often strongly tied to wide receiver performance, but the hope is that we can further isolate wide receiver performance with this metric.

Average YPRR by NFL WR Groupings 2021-2023

With these numbers in mind, it’s easy to see how wide receivers who are used heavily in certain personnel groupings can gain significant advantages in YPRR. If a wide receiver spends the majority of their snaps in two-wide receiver sets, they should, over the course of a season and/or several seasons, generate a higher YPRR figure than a receiver in an offense that runs more three- or four-wide receiver sets.

The reason for focusing on the first- and second-year wide receivers is that personnel-adjusted yards per route run as a whole didn’t provide a whole lot of new information when looking at all wide receivers, regardless of NFL experience. For the most part, fantasy managers are aware of who these wide receivers are and which ones to trust for fantasy purposes so there weren’t enough key takeaways for the position as a whole that was worth exploring further.

However, when narrowing the scope to players early in their NFL careers, there was a better correlation to future fantasy success based on how they performed in their initial NFL seasons. This becomes a point of interest for second and third-year wide receivers, as their smaller sample of work in the NFL allows for more scrutinization as we attempt to figure out what these young wide receivers can be prior to them hitting their prime in the NFL.

2023 Year 1 wide receivers and their projections for Years 2 & 3

Starting with the rookies, understand that first-year players rarely peak in their initial NFL seasons, so there’s typically going to be some form of progression coming out of Year 1 and into Years 2 and 3. That part should be expected. Using the personnel-adjusted YPRR formula, we can get a better expectation of what that growth can look like for players who performed well and those who didn’t in this metric by separating them into different buckets.

Rookie WRs who score 75th percentile or higher in PA-YPRR since 2016 (+0.30 PA-YPRR or higher):

Year 1 players who hit this mark in 2023 (min. 100 routes):

• Puka Nacua (1.28)
• Rashee Rice (0.97)
• Tank Dell (0.80)
• Jayden Reed (0.74)
• Dontayvion Wicks (0.61)

These rookies performed over expectations more than any of their peers in 2023. Puka Nacua led the way and is among elite company, as he's sandwiched right between CeeDee Lamb (1.38) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (1.28) as top-eight marks in the entire league (min. 100 routes).

Nacua, Rice, Dell, and Reed all surpassed double-digit fantasy points per game as rookies, creating an even stronger projection for them going forward. Among 24 first-year wide receivers who ranked among the top 75th percentile in personnel-adjusted yards per route run and delivered at least 10.0 fantasy points per game in Year 1 since 2016, 19 (79%) improved their points per game totals in Year 2. This is up from the 68.5% of all 75th percentile PA-YPRR performers in Year 1.

Not to be forgotten, Dontayvion Wicks is also a standout in this metric, and while he only delivered 6.9 fantasy points per game as a rookie, with limited opportunity, he did the most with what he was given. Wicks could be hard-pressed to improve his opportunities in 2024 if Christian Watson is healthy, along with the aforementioned Reed, among other Packers pass-catchers, but is worth considering as a flyer this season should his depth chart situation improve.

Rookie WRs who score between the 50th and 74th percentile in PA-YPRR since 2016 (between +0.29 & 0.00):

Year 1 players who hit this mark in 2023 (min. 100 routes):

• Josh Downs (0.29)
• Demario Douglas (0.25)
• Zay Flowers (0.18)
• Marvin Mims Jr. (0.16)
• Jordan Addison (0.11)
• Tre Tucker (0.11)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (0.00)

As highlighted in the chart above, this isn’t necessarily the most impressive bucket to be a part of. Year 3 fantasy points per game projections are actually decreasing for this group as a whole. However, there are some key names worth providing more context for — Josh Downs, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Flowers and Addison are the only two rookies in this cohort who cracked double-digit fantasy points per game in 2023, and unlike the 75th percentile group above, this grouping doesn’t provide as much optimism for future growth. Eight rookies since 2016 posted at least 10.0 fantasy points per game and ranked between the 50th and 74th percentile in PA-YPRR, with only three of them improving on that production in Year 2 (Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Waddle, and Marquise Brown). Overall improvement in fantasy points per game is also down to about 54.5% for this group since 2016, but it is not an impossible task in the right situation.

Rookie WRs who score between the 25th and 49th percentile in PA-YPRR since 2016 (between -0.01 & -0.47):

Year 1 players who hit this mark in 2023 (min. 100 routes):

• Michael Wilson (-0.03)
• Jake Bobo (-0.10)
• A.T. Perry (-0.21)
• Rakim Jarrett (-0.31)
• Malik Heath (-0.37)
• Derius Davis (-0.43)
• Jalin Hyatt (-0.44)

Things start to get particularly dicey for this group as they already have a lower projected Year 2 average for fantasy points per game, but Year 3 also highlights another decline from the natural expected progression of Year 2.

Among this group, since 2016, there have been players who emerged as fantasy-relevant. Most notably, Nico Collins who just posted 16.0 fantasy points per game in 2023 in Year 3 of his NFL career. Collins is one of seven Year 3 double-digit fantasy performers from this grouping out of 34 qualifiers since 2016. Only 26.5% hit that mark in Year 2, though that's still not an impossible path for someone to emerge here.

Rookie WRs who score below the 25th percentile in PA-YPRR since 2016 (lower than -0.48):

Year 1 players who hit this mark in 2023 (min. 100 routes):

• Trey Palmer (-0.48)
• Quentin Johnston (-0.48)
• Jonathan Mingo (-0.55)
• Parker Washington (-0.57)
• Xavier Gipson (-0.64)
• Tyler Scott (-0.70)
• Cedric Tillman (-0.75)
• Xavier Hutchinson (-0.87)

Finally, the last and most discouraging bucket to be a part of, this bottom 25th percentile includes 35 rookie wide receivers since 2016. None of them produced double-digit fantasy points per game in Year 1, and only four (11%) have gone on to do so in Year 2. All four Year 2 players (Zay Jones, Mike Williams, D.J. Chark and Curtis Samuel) saw a decrease in points per game in Year 3.

Unfortunately, this tells us that the incredibly poor rookie seasons of Quentin Johnston and Jonathan Mingo are likely strong indicators that they won’t emerge as fantasy-relevant anytime soon, if at all.

2023 Year 2 wide receivers and their projections for Year 3

While rookie data can be helpful, it’s also not going to be a perfect picture of what these players could be long-term because it’s also a relatively small sample size. For that reason, Year 2 data becomes particularly more reliable for future projections, as there is a stronger correlation between Year 2 PA-YPRR and Year 3 fantasy points per game than there is for Year 1 PA-YPRR and Year 2 fantasy points per game for a difference of an additional 10% correlation in favor of Year 2 projection data.

Sophomore WRs who score 75th percentile or higher in PA-YPRR since 2016 (+0.48 PA-YPRR or higher):

Year 2 players who hit this mark in 2023 (min. 100 routes):

• George Pickens (0.70)
• Chris Olave (0.63)
• Khalil Shakir (0.53)

Between 2016 and 2022, there have been 29 wide receivers to rank among the top 75th percentile in PA-YPRR in their second seasons. 41.4% improved their fantasy points per game in Year 3, with a slightly more encouraging mark of those who hit double-digit fantasy points per game (45.5%) also improving those marks in Year 3.

Both Pickens and Olave find themselves among the safest Year 3 bets heading into 2024 while Shakir is one of the better candidates for improvement from his second season where he averaged just 6.0 fantasy points per game but delivered well in this PA-YPRR metric.

Players who score between the 50th and 74th percentile or higher in sophomore PA-YPRR since 2016 (between +0.12 & +0.47):

Year 2 players who hit this mark in 2023 (min. 100 routes):

• Rashid Shaheed (0.27)
• Garrett Wilson (0.12)

Only two Year 2 wide receivers qualified for this cohort, and while the average fantasy points per game in Year 3 for these players typically indicates a decline, 27% of those that hit double-digit fantasy points also improved their total in Year 3. For Wilson, we know that quarterback play has been his greatest downfall and likely a strong indicator of his lower totals over the past two seasons. His talent and situation should make for a great bet to be an outlier in this grouping.

Sophomore WRs who score between the 25th and 49th percentile in PA-YPRR since 2016 (between -0.38 & +0.11):

Year 2 players who hit this mark in 2023 (min. 100 routes):

• Christian Watson (0.11)
• Drake London (0.06)
• Wan’Dale Robinson (-0.02)
• Brandon Johnson (-0.05)
• David Bell (-0.09)
• Romeo Doubs (0.11)

Both Watson and London could be considered surprise names in this bucket, and much like Garrett Wilson above, there are some legitimate excuses to be made for both players heading into Year 3.

For Watson, injuries have played a large part in his numbers being down this past season, especially considering that he was among the 90th percentile of Year 1 performers since 2016. If he can stay healthy, he’d be in consideration as a bounce-back candidate as the two players (Donovan Peoples-Jones and Keke Coutee) who fell into this bucket in Year 2 but were among the top 75th percentile as rookies, both improved their fantasy points per game in Year 3.

For London, much like Garrett Wilson, quarterback play has crushed his potential and moved him from an 80th-percentile performer as a rookie to the 47th percentile in Year 2. He’d also be in strong consideration to improve in Year 3.

With only a 32% improvement rate for this group in Year 3, London and Wilson would be the clear choices for this group to contribute to that smaller success rate in 2024.

Sophomore WRs who score below the 25th percentile in PA-YPRR since 2016 (lower than -0.38):

Year 2 players who hit this mark in 2023 (min. 100 routes):

• Skyy Moore (-0.54)
• Alec Pierce (-0.55)
• Treylon Burks (-0.57)
• Jahan Dotson (-0.57)
• Tyquan Thornton (-0.80)

Lastly, the final cohort, and one that indicates very little optimism for those that delivered among the bottom 25th percentile in Year 2. With an already low points per game average from this group, that expectation actually decreases heading into Year 3. Not a single player since 2016 who scored this poorly in PA-YPRR in Year 2 delivered double-digit fantasy points per game in Year 3, and only 37% actually improved upon their already low totals of Year 2.

For players like Burks and Dotson, this doesn’t help their chances of a Year 3 bounce-back. Burks did appear among the top-75th percentile performers in PA-YPRR as a rookie, with the only other qualifiers in this range that also did so being Elijah Moore, Dante Pettis, and Robert Foster. All three improved on their Year 2 fantasy points per game, with Moore going from 5.7 to 8.5, Pettis going from 3.1 to 3.8, and Foster going from 1.1 to 1.4 — all very low ceilings for which to compare.

Dotson could see an improvement, similarly to players mentioned in the above buckets due to improved quarterback play, though, it still isn’t an optimistic outlook as he was just a 53rd percentile PA-YPRR performer in his rookie season.