• What does Aaron Glenn have in store for Jayden Daniels? The Lions' defensive coordinator altered his coverage patterns in Week 18, and he could use more Cover 2 this week.
• Pay attention to Josh Allen‘s play-action passing: Allen earned a top-10 PFF passing grade on the concept, but Baltimore was one of the NFL's best defenses against it late in the season.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF's best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, the niche, micro-level battles add an extra layer of nuance. That includes players or units battling head-to-head or defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Last week’s focus on Matthew Stafford under pressure (68.1 PFF passing grade, 75% adjusted completion percentage) and Derrick Henry against loaded boxes (17 carries, 83 yards, 74.7 PFF rushing grade) helped swing the results of wild-card weekend. With the stage only magnified during the divisional round, coordinators need to bring the shrewdest of strategies to the table.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here is one matchup to pay close attention to in all four divisional-round battles.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Houston Texans‘ blitzes
The Texans pulled off a rather shockingly dominant win over the Chargers in the wild-card round, fueled by a tremendous day for the team’s defense. What particularly worked for DeMeco Ryans was a high blitz rate against Justin Herbert, and the same formula could be the team’s best shot at winning in Arrowhead Stadium.
Houston blitzed Herbert on 37.8% of passing snaps, the defense's third-highest rate of the year. With extra rushers in his face, Herbert went just 5-of-11 for 70 yards and a 71.0 PFF passing grade. Granted, Herbert was actually worse when not blitzed (52.6 PFF passing grade), but Houston’s pressure and strategic stunts certainly impacted his rhythm and timing.
All year long, Mahomes hasn’t been exceptional when handling five or more rushers. His 70.3 PFF passing grade against the blitz ranks 18th out of 26 qualifying starters, although his 88.8 PFF rushing grade ranks third.
When these teams squared off in Week 16, Houston blitzed Mahomes 30.4% of the time and the three-time Super Bowl champ secured a mediocre 65.4 PFF passing grade and a 46.2% adjusted completion percentage against the looks.
If the Texans manage to pull off the upset, it will likely be because of their upstart defense standing tall yet again — and augmenting that blitz rate against a makeshift offensive line could be the most prudent method of doing so.
Patrick Mahomes' Blitzed/Not Blitzed Splits in 2024
Jayden Daniels vs. Lions’ Cover-2 looks
Daniels' performance against a premier defensive mind in Aaron Glenn is among the top storylines of the Commanders-Lions duel. As Glenn did against Sam Darnold in Week 18, this matchup could very well incorporate the Lions switching up their tendencies to affect Daniels.
Detroit has primarily operated out of Cover 1 and Cover 3, utilizing the looks on 52.9% of snaps. Meanwhile, their Cover-2 rate is just 12.3%. The fact that the Lions’ 66.0 team PFF coverage grade from Cover 2 is lower than the prior two concepts helps explain why Glenn hasn’t implemented it as much.
However, among the three options discussed above, Daniels has by far been at his worst when facing Cover 2. His 58.9 PFF passing grade against those looks ranks 32nd out of 43 qualified quarterbacks, and his 5.0% turnover-worthy play rate places 12th highest. Meanwhile, Daniels owns an 82.4 PFF passing grade against Cover 3 and a 68.0 PFF passing grade against Cover 1.
Two weeks ago, Glenn displayed his acumen and flexibility by turning to Cover 0 on 23.1% of Detroit’s defensive plays against the Vikings — considerably higher than the Lions’ 5.8% season-long rate. In a game where Detroit’s defense will need to prevent Washington’s efficient offense from keeping pace, to what extent Glenn adjusts the dial to Cover 2 will likely determine how well the Lions can flummox Daniels.
Saquon Barkley after contact vs. Rams
The last time the Eagles and Rams battled, Barkley put on a show with 255 yards and an 84.6 PFF rushing grade. If the Rams want a better outcome this time around, they’ll need to home in on tackling Barkley as early as possible.
Much of Barkley’s success in that Week 12 contest was because of his Herculean play after contact. The All-Pro runner averaged a ridiculous 6.0 yards after contact per carry — still the most by any player with 20-plus carries in a game this year. Altogether, the Rams were responsible for an average of 4.1 yards after contact surrendered per carry in that Sunday Night Football clash, their second-worst single-game mark of the season.
But Chris Shula’s defense has improved immensely in preventing rushing yards after contact as the season has endured. Since Week 8, the Rams have yielded the third-fewest rushing yards after contact (2.6) despite playing against Kenneth Walker III and James Cook. However, Los Angeles still ranks 18th in rushing EPA per play and 13th in success rate in that span, meaning not all run-defense holes have been patched.
The best shot the Rams have at pulling off the upset is by limiting Philadelphia’s dynamic run game and forcing Jalen Hurts into obvious passing situations, particularly getting pressure on the quarterback. The necessary first step in accomplishing that is to slow down Barkley, which is much easier said than done.
Most Yards After Contact in 2024 Among Running Backs
Josh Allen’s play-action passing vs. Ravens
Allen and Lamar Jackson — one of the best individual face-offs of the entire postseason. While Jackson’s postseason scrutiny remains high, Allen will need to play better against a markedly improved defense since these teams met in Week 4.
Play action has been one of Allen’s signature weapons this year. The MVP candidate ranks seventh among qualifiers with a 91.9 PFF overall grade on the concept, and his 89.6 PFF rushing grade is the second-best mark among quarterbacks. In turn, the Bills rank seventh in EPA per play and fourth in success rate on play action.
But the Ravens have stifled play action, especially in the second half of the season. Since Week 10, Baltimore sits second in success rate and EPA per play against play action, having given up the fewest yards per play (5.7) on fake handoffs.
During the first bout between these powerhouses, Allen played subpar football on play action, completing 3-of-6 passes for nine yards, zero big-time throws and two turnover-worthy plays. The quarterback’s ineffectiveness, paired with a monster rushing game from Baltimore, enabled a landslide Ravens victory. If the Bills want to escape a second loss to the Ravens this year, Allen and the team’s play-action pass game must be productive.
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