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Ahead of the divisional round, our media team has dived deep into the numbers to deliver key insights for every NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that shape each game.
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HOU@KC | WAS@DET | LAR@PHI | BAL@BUF
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
In their Week 16 matchup, C.J. Stroud exploited the Chiefs defense with intermediate throws, earning an elite 94.0 passing grade on attempts between 10-19 yards — his highest mark of the season. Stroud completed 8-of-10 passes in that range for 131 yards and a touchdown, producing a near-perfect 152.1 passer rating. The 131 yards are still the most the Chiefs have allowed on intermediate throws in a single game all season.
Stroud struggled on deeper throws in the same contest, connecting on just 1-of-8 passes of 20 or more yards. Those struggles reflect his broader challenges with deep passing throughout the 2024 season, as his 57.7 passer rating on such attempts ranked 31st out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks, slightly ahead of Patrick Mahomes at 59.6.
For Mahomes, deep passing proved to be an uncharacteristic weakness in 2024. He averaged a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt and posted the fewest deep completions (12) since becoming a starter in 2018. Over his final four regular-season games, Mahomes completed just 1-of-12 deep attempts, highlighting the lack of explosive plays in the Chiefs offense.
Houston’s defense, meanwhile, has been vulnerable to deep shots, allowing 10 touchdowns on passes of 20 or more yards — tied for the third-most in the NFL. Opposing offenses targeted the Texans deep at the second-highest rate in the league (14.3% of pass attempts), presenting an area for Kansas City to potentially exploit if Mahomes can reverse his recent struggles.
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
Washington’s no-huddle offense could pose significant challenges for the Lions defense in this NFC showdown. The Commanders lead the NFL in no-huddle usage, operating at a 61% rate and pairing it with a highly effective ground game. Washington averages 5.4 yards per carry when running out of no-huddle, fueled by Brian Robinson Jr. (5.2 yards per carry) and quarterback Jayden Daniels (6.4 yards per carry). The duo has been a nightmare for defenses, combining for 32 explosive runs of 10 or more yards on those plays, with Daniels leading the NFL in this category during the regular season.
The Lions have struggled against no-huddle rushing attacks, earning the third-lowest team run-defense grade (43.7) in such situations. Opposing offenses gashed them for explosive runs at a league-high rate of 30.4%, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Detroit also allowed a staggering 4.1 rushing yards before contact per attempt.
On the other side of the ball, the Lions’ play-action offense could be pivotal in this matchup. Jared Goff thrived in Ben Johnson’s scheme this season, completing 74.6% of his play-action passes — the second-highest mark in the league — and producing a 120.7 passer rating that ranks fourth. Detroit’s dynamic attack is capable of hitting defenses at every level. Jameson Williams led the team with 583 receiving yards on play fakes and a 16.1-yard average target depth, while Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta dominated underneath. The Lions’ backfield duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs further bolstered the offense, contributing to a league-high 57 explosive receptions of 15 or more yards off play fakes.
Interestingly, the Commanders defense is well-equipped to slow play-action attacks. They’ve allowed the 10th-lowest passer rating (94.0) against play action and boast the NFL’s highest contested target rate (18.4%). Dan Quinn’s unit also excelled at limiting big plays, giving up just 6.7 yards per play on play fakes — the fifth-best mark in the league.
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Containing the Eagles’ top two rushing threats will be crucial for the Rams’ success in this playoff rematch. In their Week 12 regular-season matchup, Saquon Barkley exploded for a season-high 255 rushing yards, including second-half touchdown runs of 72 and 70 yards. Barkley has been the Eagles’ closer all season, leading the league with 186 carries, 1,245 rushing yards, and eight rushing touchdowns in the third and fourth quarters, averaging an impressive 6.7 yards per carry. The Rams, meanwhile, have struggled in late-game situations, allowing 4.9 yards per carry in the second half—the fifth-worst mark among all defenses.
Play action has been a cornerstone of success for the Rams offense, with Matthew Stafford continuing his efficiency on these plays. Against the Vikings last week, Stafford completed 8 of 11 play-action passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. He is the only quarterback with a 90-plus PFF passing grade on play-action dropbacks in each of the past two seasons. The Rams have also thrived on explosive plays from play action, tallying 47 such plays this season—second only to the Lions. However, the Eagles defense has excelled in defending play action, allowing just 5.3 yards per play, the best mark in the league.
Puka Nacua stands out as the Rams' most dangerous skill player, consistently excelling against all forms of coverage. Among qualified receivers, he ranks second with 3.85 yards per route run against man coverage and leads the league with 3.66 yards per route run versus zone. However, he faces a tough challenge in rookie defensive back Cooper DeJean, who has been exceptional in man coverage from the slot. DeJean has allowed just eight catches for 64 yards on 17 targets this season, earning the fourth-highest PFF coverage grade at his position.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
The Ravens handed the Bills their biggest loss of the season back in Week 4, fueled by a relentless ground game that piled up 271 rushing yards — 118 more than any other team has managed against Buffalo this year. Of those yards, 176 came before contact, with the side averaging 2.3 rushing yards before contact per attempt.
However, Buffalo’s defensive front has shown significant improvement since that matchup, as they have allowed just 0.9 rushing yards before contact per attempt since Week 5, the third-best mark in the league in that span.
Lamar Jackson was clinical throwing inside the numbers against the Bills in Week 4, completing 7 -of-8 attempts for 88 yards and a touchdown, showcasing the precision that earned him a 95.2 passing grade on such throws this season — second only to Joe Burrow. However, Jackson could be without his top target in the middle of the field, Zay Flowers, who ranked third among all players with 15.7 yards per catch on targets inside the numbers. The Bills have struggled in this area, allowing 13.8 yards per catch to wide receivers inside the numbers, the fifth-worst mark among NFL defenses.
Despite their win over the Steelers, the Ravens delivered their worst performance of the season defending the deep ball, allowing five completions for 154 yards and two touchdowns — all season-highs. Now, they face Josh Allen, who ranks second among quarterbacks with a 95.8 passing grade on deep attempts and leads the league with 30 big-time throws, four of which came against Baltimore in their Week 4 matchup.
Khalil Shakir is another threat for the Bills to watch. He had the third-most yards after the catch in the wild-card round (50) and ranked third in the regular season with 605 yards after the catch. Over a third of that came on wide screens, with his 220 yards after catch on those plays ranking second-best in the league. The Ravens contained yards after the catch well in Week 4, allowing just 4.1 yards per reception to the Bills, contributing to their season-long mark of 5.0 — the fourth-best among defenses.
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