• The blitz-heavy Broncos: Denver has sent six or more rushers on 11.6% of pass-rush snaps, the third-highest rate in the league. Overall, the Broncos boast a pressure rate of 40.4%, which is also third in the NFL, along with an impressive sack rate of 9.8% that ranks second.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
For 17 years, PFF has built the most detailed football database in the world, analyzing every player on every play across the NFL, college football and beyond. Trusted by all 32 NFL teams and countless others, PFF provides the data that helps uncover the real story behind every game.
Ahead of NFL Week 7, our media team has dived deep into the numbers to deliver key insights for every NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that shape each game.
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DEN@NO | NE@JAX | SEA@ATL | TEN@BUF | CIN@CLE | HOU@GB | MIA@IND | DET@MIN | PHI@NYG | LVR@LAR | CAR@WAS | KC@SF | NYJ@PIT | BAL@TB | LAC@ARI |
DENVER BRONCOS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Broncos' defense has been relentless this season, excelling not only in sending pressure but also in creating it. Denver's 50.8% pass blitz rate ranks second in the league, trailing only the Vikings. They have sent six or more rushers on 11.6% of their pass-rush snaps, the third-highest in the league. Overall, the Broncos boast a pressure rate of 40.4%, which is also third in the NFL, along with an impressive sack rate of 9.8% that ranks second.
In contrast, the Saints defense favors lighter boxes, using six or fewer defenders in the box on 58% of their defensive snaps, the fourth-highest rate in the league. However, New Orleans has allowed 5.6 yards per rush attempt in these light box situations, potentially giving Denver an opportunity to establish their run game in this matchup.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Drake Maye’s starting debut offered hope for Patriots fans. On 11 dropbacks against the blitz, Maye completed six of ten passes for 113 yards and two touchdowns. His only significant blemish was an interception late in the first quarter.
Notably, Maye’s 11.3 yards per attempt versus the blitz ranks as the fourth-highest single-game mark among rookie quarterbacks this season.
Meanwhile, former first overall pick Travon Walker is enjoying the best season of his career in terms of pass-rushing effectiveness. Walker’s 11.1% win rate and 12.7% pressure rate are career-highs for the third-year edge player.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS
Mike Macdonald’s defensive unit is blitzing the passer at the 18th-highest rate this season, with a blitz percentage of 30.5% on opponents' dropbacks. However, when they do blitz, Seattle has generated unblocked pressure 23.9% of the time, the fourth-highest rate among all teams.
Among the 61 running backs with 25 or more rushing attempts this season, Tyler Allgeier ranks fifth with an impressive 3.9 yards after contact per rushing attempt.
TENNESSEE TITANS VS. BUFFALO BILLS
This season, 93% of Tony Pollard’s 339 rushing yards have come after contact, the second-highest rate among running backs with at least 25 rushing attempts.
In acquiring Amari Cooper, Buffalo adds an elite downfield receiving option for Josh Allen and the offense. Since 2020, Cooper has recorded 43 receptions on targets of 20 or more yards downfield, eighth among wide receivers. Additionally, his 11 touchdown receptions on deep passes are tied for the 12th most at the position.
CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Ja'Marr Chase‘s 174 receiving yards after contact lead the NFL. His nine missed tackles forced on receptions are tied for the third-most among wide receivers.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah boasts an impressive 90.3 grade in run defense, currently the third-highest among linebackers this season. His 14 run stops are tied for the sixth-most at his position to start the season.
HOUSTON TEXANS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS
Compared to last season, Houston is utilizing more shifts and motion on offense to begin the 2024 season. In 2023, Houston’s shift/motion rate of 58% ranked 14th in the league during the regular season. This year, they have increased their usage to 75%, which ranks fifth-highest in the league. When using motion, Houston’s explosive pass play percentage stands at 18.6%, placing them third behind only Baltimore (25.5%) and Philadelphia (20.2%).
When teams choose not to blitz Jordan Love, he makes them pay, generating a 118.0 passer rating that ranks first in the league. His nine touchdown passes are tied for the most this season, while his 9.3 yards per attempt rank second overall.
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Josh Downs has made a significant impact since returning to the lineup, showcasing his separation ability. Since Week 3, Downs has 20 receptions and 12 receiving conversions on open targets, both of which rank second at the position.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins' cornerback group has struggled to limit separation this season, having allowed open targets on 58% of attempts against them, the highest percentage among all cornerback groups.
With Tua Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins found success generating chunk plays when targeting the first read on the play, a facet that has been lacking this year. In 2023, the Dolphins ranked second in the NFL with 9.4 yards per attempt on first-read throws, but that figure has dropped to just 6.5 this year, placing them 26th. However, there may be an opportunity to regain their footing in this matchup against a Colts defense that has allowed 8.6 yards per attempt on first-read throws this season, the fourth-worst mark among defenses.
DETROIT LIONS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The loss of Aidan Hutchinson is immeasurable for the Lions' defensive front, but their interior pass rush has been a bright spot and will be even more crucial going forward.
Alim McNeill and Levi Onwuzurike are one of four interior defensive line duos to each record at least 15 pressures this year, and the Lions' interior defensive line as a whole has combined for 46 total pressures, tying for second among all interior defensive line groups.
The weak spot in pass protection on an otherwise solid Vikings offensive line has been guard Ed Ingram. Among 68 guards, his 29.4 pass block grade ranks third-lowest, and his 17 total pressures allowed tie for the fourth-most.
Over his last two games, Jared Goff has excelled against the blitz, completing 17 of 18 passes for 380 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. This brings his season totals to a league-leading 701 passing yards and 12.1 yards per attempt against the blitz.
Next up for Goff is Brian Flores and the league's most blitz-happy defense, which boasts a 52% blitz rate. The Vikings' blitzes have resulted in six offensive turnovers — the most in the NFL — and a 64.5 passer rating for opposing quarterbacks, the second-lowest in the league.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. NEW YORK GIANTS
Whether it’s Malik Nabers or Darius Slayton, Giants wide receivers have found considerable success against single coverage. From Weeks 1 to 4, Malik Nabers ranked tied for fourth in the NFL with 178 receiving yards against single coverage before suffering a concussion that sidelined him. Enter Darius Slayton, whose 160 receiving yards against single coverage leads the NFL since Week 5.
On the other side of the ball, Eagles rookie first-round pick Quinyon Mitchell has given up eight open targets in single coverage, tying for the third-most, but he has also recorded six forced incompletions, which ranks tied for fourth.
Saquon Barkley’s 5.3 yards per carry would be the highest mark of his career over a full season, largely due to the gaps the Eagles' offensive line is creating in the run game. Barkley ranks fourth in the NFL with 206 rushing yards before contact this season.
However, against a Giants defensive line anchored by Dexter Lawrence, those running lanes will be harder to come by. The Giants are allowing only 0.9 rushing yards before contact per attempt, the fourth-best mark in the league.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS
When the Raiders face zone coverage, the ball is highly likely to go in Brock Bowers‘ direction. He leads all NFL pass-catchers with 32 receptions against zone coverage, and his 295 receiving yards rank 11th overall, the most among tight ends. The Rams have struggled in zone coverage this season, sitting last in the NFL with 13.1 yards per reception allowed.
In terms of play action, Matthew Stafford has been one of the NFL’s top passers this season, ranking fourth among qualifying quarterbacks with an 84.4 passing grade. However, when not using play action, that number drops significantly to 45.3, placing him just ahead of Will Levis at 31.0.
These splits are particularly relevant for this matchup, as the Raiders defense ranks fourth in passing success rate allowed without play action (32%) but falls to 25th when facing play action (48%).
CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
No player comes close to Terry McLaurin’s 91 contested catches since he entered the NFL in 2019, leading by 14. This season, the trend continues, as his 12 contested catches top the league. He’ll have a strong opportunity to increase that total in this matchup, as Panthers corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are tied for 10th at their position with nine contested targets in coverage.
The Panthers' offseason investments in improving the interior of the offensive line have paid off this season. Their interior offensive line group has combined for a 75.1 pass-block grade, ranking seventh-best, and has allowed the second-fewest pressures of any interior offensive line group, with just 16.
Opposing them will be Daron Payne, whose 19 pressures rank tied for seventh among interior defensive linemen. However, Jonathan Allen will be absent, as he recently landed on season-ending IR due to a pec injury. His absence opens up a significant opportunity for second-round pick Jer'Zhan Newton, who recorded an impressive 84.0 pass-rush grade at Illinois in 2023 but currently sits at just 45.4 in his rookie year.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The Chiefs led the NFL with a 17% screen pass attempt rate last season, and this year, they have increased that number to 21% of their pass plays. The loss of Rashee Rice could potentially decrease this percentage, as his 32 targets on screens rank as the third-most among wide receivers since he entered the league last year. However, in Week 5, the Chiefs still called screens on 22% of their pass plays despite Rice‘s absence.
Candidates to fill the screen target void include Mecole Hardman, whose 65 screen targets are the most for the Chiefs since 2019. Additionally, Travis Kelce has received 18 screen targets, tied for the fourth-most among tight ends dating back to the start of the 2023 regular season.
Also, look for Andy Reid to possibly increase rookie Xavier Worthy‘s involvement in the screen game; Worthy's most targeted route in college was wide screens, with a total of 41.
Deebo Samuel may see more time in the backfield as the season progresses for San Francisco. This season, he has lined up in the backfield on 10% of his offensive snaps, compared to just 6% last season after a career-high 14% in 2022. Since 2018, Samuel has accumulated 690 rushing yards on 123 carries from a backfield alignment, averaging 5.6 yards per rush, along with 12 touchdowns. Notably, his 4.3 yards after contact per attempt is the highest among players with a minimum of 100 carries since 2018.
NEW YORK JETS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Aaron Rodgers has struggled to connect with Jets pass-catchers on downfield throws (10-plus yards), achieving just a 42% completion rate, which ranks eighth-lowest among qualifying quarterbacks. Enter Davante Adams, who ranked fourth in the NFL with 40 catches on downfield throws during his last season with Rodgers in 2021.
However, completions will be challenging against a Steelers defense that has allowed only 23 receptions on downfield throws this season, tying for fourth-best in the league.
Najee Harris is coming off a career-best 90.7 PFF grade in Week 6, during which he forced eight total missed tackles, bringing his season total to 26 — ranking tied for sixth in the league. Of the Jets' 59 total missed tackles this season (tied for sixth most), 40 have come from failing to tackle opposing running backs, a mark only surpassed by the Raiders.
BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Ravens' run game has been difficult to slow down this year, particularly when they utilize pullers. They lead the NFL with 307 rushing yards (38 more than the next-closest team) and 20 rushing conversions (six more than the next-closest team) on run plays that involve at least one puller. This will be a key matchup to watch against a Buccaneers defense that allows 3.8 yards per carry on runs without a puller (seventh-best) compared to 5.9 yards per carry on runs with at least one puller (fourth-worst).
Last season, Chris Godwin recorded 448 receiving yards and 12 receptions of 15 or more yards from the slot. Through just six games in 2024, he is already on the verge of exceeding those numbers, leading the NFL with 413 receiving yards and 11 receptions of 15 or more yards from the slot.
He has a solid opportunity to reach those totals against the Ravens, who have allowed 14 receptions of 15 or more yards to opposing slot receivers, tied for the second most among defenses.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS
J.K. Dobbins has been a big-play machine for the Chargers on the ground this season. He has recorded at least one carry of 10 or more yards in every game he has played, and his total of 12 carries of 10-plus yards ranks tied for fourth most in the NFL.
Allowing big gains on the ground has been a weakness for the Cardinals defense, which has surrendered 24 runs of 10 or more yards, tied for sixth most in the league.
Kyler Murray was perfect on deep throws (20-plus yards downfield) against the Rams in Week 2, going 5-of-5 for 156 yards and three touchdowns. However, in the rest of the Cardinals' games combined, he has connected on only 2-of-17 deep throws for 62 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception.
He now faces a Chargers defense that is allowing a 58% completion rate on deep throws this season, the second-highest in the NFL.
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