NFL playoff picture ahead of Week 15

• Kansas City Chiefs eyeing home-field advantage: The Chiefs have an 81% chance of securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC, according to PFF's simulations.

• A massive week for the Colts: The Indianapolis Colts have a 68% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 14 win, but their chances will fall to just 10% with a loss.

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Estimated reading time: 10 minutes

The current situation ahead of Week 15

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
7. Denver Broncos (8-5)

Current NFC playoff standings

1. Detroit Lions (12-1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2)
3. Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
5. Minnesota Vikings (11-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (9-4)
7. Washington Commanders (8-5)

If these standings held up, we would welcome two new AFC teams (Broncos and Chargers) and four new NFC teams (Commanders, Seahawks and Vikings) to the playoffs.

The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.