NFL playoff picture ahead of Week 12

• Kansas City Chiefs eyeing home-field advantage: The Chiefs have a 54% chance of securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC, according to PFF's simulations.

• A massive week for the San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have a 53% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 12 win, but their chances will fall to just 15% with a loss.

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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

The current situation ahead of Week 11

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)
4. Houston Texans (7-4)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
6. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
7. Denver Broncos (6-5)

Current NFC playoff standings

1. Detroit Lions (9-1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
3. Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
5. Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (7-3)
7. Washington Commanders (7-4)

If these standings held up, we would welcome two new AFC teams (Broncos and Chargers) and four new NFC teams (Commanders, Falcons, Cardinals and Vikings) to the playoffs.

The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.