- Teams will always address a struggling receiving corps: Over the past five seasons, teams that finished with an explosive pass rate under 12% have drafted a wide receiver or tight end by the end of Day 2 in 80% of instances (20 out of 25).
- Seven teams in 2024 fit this trend and could target WRs or TEs early: The Patriots, Browns, Bears, Commanders, Giants, Raiders and Chiefs all ranked below the 12% threshold and are likely candidates to add receiving help in the first three rounds.
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By the end of Round 3 of the 2025 NFL Draft, 102 players will have heard their names called — with team needs, positional value and recent performance trends all playing a role in those shaping early selections.
Before then, the pre-draft landscape will be filled with speculation — trying to match team needs to prospect fits and predict how the early rounds will unfold. While much of it is educated guesswork and subject to the chaos of draft night, historical trends and data can help narrow the possibilities and identify which teams are more likely to address certain needs early.
One consistent driver of early-round decisions, particularly at wide receiver, is offensive inefficiency in the passing game — and more specifically, a lack of explosive plays.
In 2023, the league-wide rate of explosive pass plays (gains of 15-plus yards) dropped to just 13.5% — the lowest mark since 2007. Ten teams finished below the 12% threshold, and all 10 responded by drafting a pass-catcher within the top 100 picks in 2024. Whether to replace departing talent, support a developing quarterback or simply inject more big-play potential, the data points to a clear trend: when explosive plays dry up, front offices act fast to fix it.
Teams with low explosive pass rates in 2023 and their draft selections in 2024
| Team | Explosive pass rate | Draft selection | School | Pick No. |
| Bears | 11.8% | Rome Odunze | Washington | Round 1; pick 9 |
| Jaguars | 11.8% | Brian Thomas Jr. | LSU | Round 1; pick 23 |
| Colts | 11.8% | Adonai Mitchell | Texas | Round 2; pick 52 |
| Cardinals | 11.5% | Marvin Harrison Jr. | Ohio State | Round 1; pick 4 |
| Patriots | 11.5% | Ja’Lynn Polk | Washington | Round 2; pick 37 |
| Steelers | 10.5% | Roman Wilson | Michigan | Round 3; pick 84 |
| Bengals | 10.5% | Jermaine Burton | Alabama | Round 3; pick 80 |
| Giants | 9.8% | Malik Nabers | LSU | Round 1; pick 6 |
| Jets | 9.0% | Malachi Corley | Western Kentucky | Round 3; pick 65 |
| Panthers | 8.9% | Xavier Legette | South Carolina | Round 1; pick 32 |
Over the past five seasons, 20 of the 25 teams that finished with an explosive pass rate under 12% went on to select a wide receiver or tight end by the end of Day 2. Of those 20, eight were first-round wide receivers, including five in 2024 alone.
Extending the sample back to 2014, teams that finished below the 12 percent mark in explosive pass rate have selected a wide receiver or tight end in Rounds 1–3 the following year 68 percent of the time.
In 2024, seven teams finished below the 12 percent mark in explosive pass-play rate. If the recent trend continues, several of them will likely target a pass-catcher within the first three rounds of the upcoming draft — so let’s take a closer look at who might be in line to add a receiving weapon early.
New England Patriots (9.5% explosive pass play percentage in 2024)
The Patriots had the dubious distinction of finishing last in explosive pass plays in 2024, tallying just 61 such receptions and becoming the only team in the league with a rate under 10 percent.
There’s some renewed optimism in New England, thanks to the arrival of young quarterback Drake Maye and the return of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator. The additions of Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins in free agency should also give the passing game a needed lift.
The current wide receiver room features a mix of veterans and mid-to-late-round draft picks from the past two classes. New England used a second-round pick on Ja’Lynn Polk in 2024, and with several roster needs still unaddressed, the team could opt to wait on adding another receiving option.
However, history suggests otherwise. In seven of the past 10 years, the team that finished last in explosive pass-play rate has used an early pick on a pass-catcher the following spring. The last team to buck that trend was Green Bay in 2017. Even then, the Packers spent three Day 3 picks on wide receivers in the 2018 draft.
Cleveland Browns (10.3% explosive pass play percentage in 2024)
The Browns are strong candidates to add a pass-catcher early in the draft. With Jerry Jeudy now in the mix but an otherwise unproven depth chart behind him, Cleveland’s offense still needs help — especially after struggling to generate points for much of last season.
If the Browns use the No. 2 overall pick on a quarterback, it would make sense to follow that up by targeting a wide receiver with one of their Day 2 selections. The need for a playmaker who can create after the catch is especially pressing, as Cleveland’s wide receiver group ranked 31st in yards after the catch per reception (3.5) in 2024.
Chicago Bears (11.1% explosive pass play percentage in 2024)
The Bears hired Ben Johnson with two goals in mind: unlock Caleb Williams’ potential and turn Chicago into a contender in a loaded NFC North.
At the NFL’s annual league meeting, Johnson made it clear that expected points added (EPA) in the passing game is one of the most important metrics in today’s NFL. His Lions offenses backed that up, ranking third in both EPA per pass play and explosive pass rate (16%) during his time as offensive coordinator.
While Chicago already has talent at wide receiver and tight end, Johnson’s scheme could benefit from one more dynamic option. If the Bears are thinking big, Emeka Egbuka would bring the polish and reliability of a future WR1 — after all, his PFF comp is nine other than Amon-Ra St. Brown. If they’re after speed, Matthew Golden — the fastest wide receiver at the combine — could fill the Jameson Williams role Johnson featured in Detroit.
No matter how they approach the draft, one thing is likely: with Johnson calling the plays, the Bears won’t be near the bottom of the league in explosive passing again.
Washington Commanders (11.1% explosive pass play percentage in 2024)
The window appears to be open for Washington to make a run under its new regime. The Commanders have already taken steps to bolster the receiving corps by trading for Deebo Samuel this offseason.
History offers a glimpse into how Washington has addressed this issue before. The last two times the team ranked near the bottom of the league in explosive pass plays — 32nd in 2020 (10.8%) and 31st in 2018 (11.3%) — they responded by drafting Dyami Brown in the third round in 2021 and Terry McLaurin in the third round in 2019.
Adding another early-round receiving option to surround Jayden Daniels could go a long way in accelerating his development and raising the offense’s ceiling.
New York Giants (11.1% explosive pass play percentage in 2024)
One of the league’s premier deep passers, Russell Wilson, joined the Giants this offseason in hopes of jumpstarting a struggling aerial attack. Despite spending a high pick on Malik Nabers last year, New York improved only marginally in explosive pass rate — from 30th in 2023 to 28th in 2024.
A more stable quarterback situation could certainly help, but the lack of big plays remains a concern. Since Brian Daboll took over in 2022, the Giants have posted a league-low 11% explosive pass rate. Adding another dynamic pass-catcher early in the draft would be a logical next step.
Las Vegas Raiders (11.3% explosive pass play percentage in 2024)
The Raiders may have landed their big-play tight end of the future in Brock Bowers, but the wide receiver room still needs reinforcements. Of the receivers currently on the roster, only Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker have reached double-digit explosive receptions (15-plus yards) in their careers.
With Geno Smith now at quarterback, the need for downfield weapons becomes even more pressing — his 28 deep touchdown passes (20-plus air yards) since 2022 lead all NFL quarterbacks. Two draft-eligible wideouts who could help immediately in that area are Tetairoa McMillan and Tre Harris, who rank first and second in explosive receptions in the FBS since 2022 with 34 and 29, respectively.
Kansas City Chiefs (11.8% explosive pass play percentage in 2024)
The likelihood of Kansas City adding another pass-catching weapon early in the draft can’t be ruled out — even with recent high investments at wide receiver.
Another position to watch: tight end. The Chiefs used 12 personnel at the fourth-highest rate in the league last season (34%), and with All-Pro Travis Kelce entering his 13th season, planning for the future makes sense. Several tight end prospects rank within or near the top 100 on the PFF big board, giving the defending AFC champions multiple options to reinforce the position.
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